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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New England Patriots 33

What Actually Happened

(:36) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 13-J.Washington to NE 26 for 6 yards (58-J.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.10 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP