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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.72 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model