4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 39

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 9-R.Gould 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.09 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model