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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 9-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model