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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 37

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 31

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Evans (25-R.Sherman) [97-N.Bosa]. The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.16 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP