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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 47

Denver Broncos 3 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 6-C.Wadman punts 32 yards to CHI 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.67 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model