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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 78

Chicago Bears 6 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:52) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 75 yards to DEN 3, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 13 for 10 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.53 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 35, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model