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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 80

Denver Broncos 3 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(:26) 6-C.Wadman punts 52 yards to CHI 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 35 for 7 yards (59-M.Reed).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.32 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 37, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model