4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 14

Denver Broncos 3 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model