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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 74

Chicago Bears 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to DEN 23, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 31 for 8 yards (84-C.Patterson).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model