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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 43

Denver Broncos 6 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(2:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to CHI 33 for 10 yards (23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.58 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model