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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 12

Denver Broncos 6 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(1:02) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to CHI 7 for 5 yards (23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.70 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP