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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 22

Chicago Bears 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 15-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.24 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP