Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 63

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Tennessee Titans 17

(1:40) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to TEN 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.18 EP
62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model