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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(8:29) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.11 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model