Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 19

(3:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to IND 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 26 for no gain (29-D.Cruikshank; 30-C.Milton).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model