4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 19 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to IND 36 for 1 yard (99-J.Casey).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.32 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model