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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:41) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 28 for 9 yards (58-B.Okereke; 38-R.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 35, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model