4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 18 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 28 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to LV 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 30-J.Richard. PENALTY on KC-84-D.Thomas, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at LV 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.16 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model