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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 10

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +3.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.54 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP