Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(2:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LV 29, Center-41-J.Winchester. 17-D.Harris to LV 40 for 11 yards (44-D.O'Daniel, 50-D.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.76 EP
64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model