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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 78

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to NE 40, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 35, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model