Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 13

(:28) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to NE 14, Center-46-T.Pepper. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 17 for 3 yards (44-D.Lacey; 27-K.Ballage).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.88 EP
50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -2.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model