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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 50

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 37

What Actually Happened

(7:13) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 32-K.Drake pushed ob at NE 40 for 10 yards (21-D.Harmon).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.48 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model