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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 41

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 37

What Actually Happened

(5:14) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Parker (53-K.Van Noy).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.42 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model