Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 85

Los Angeles Rams 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

(14:31) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to NO 40, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Harris ran ob at LA 41 for 19 yards (33-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.03 EP
61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 85, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model