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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 52

New Orleans Saints 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 48 for no gain (50-S.Ebukam, 90-M.Brockers).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.23 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 52, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model