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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 4

Los Angeles Rams 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(:07) 4-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +4.59 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 4, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model