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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 6 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to NO 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP