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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 9 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to LA 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model