Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 79

Los Angeles Rams 27 – New Orleans Saints 9

(2:35) 6-J.Hekker punts 66 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Harris to NO 22 for 9 yards (33-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.07 EP
69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 79, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model