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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 9 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to LA 20, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.06 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model