Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to TB 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson pushed ob at CAR 30 for 48 yards (5-M.Palardy). PENALTY on TB-35-J.Dean, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.30 EP
74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model