Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to CAR 12, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-R.McCloud MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 10. 14-R.McCloud to CAR 10 for no gain (82-A.Auclair; 51-K.Minter).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.89 EP
71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model