Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 6

(5:44) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CAR 7, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-48-J.Cichy.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.57 EP
56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model