Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 95

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 9

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 8-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to CAR 48, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-R.McCloud to 50 for 2 yards (82-A.Auclair). TB-35-J.Dean was injured during the play. He is Out. PENALTY on CAR-47-R.Cockrell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 48.

The Three Options

GO -3.66 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.57 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 95, worth -5.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model