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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Carolina Panthers 12

What Actually Happened

(:02) 9-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.06 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model