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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 12 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to TB 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-30-N.Jamerson.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.25 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model