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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to TB 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson to TB 33 for 11 yards (15-C.Hogan).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.25 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model