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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 9-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.03 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model