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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 14

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 4-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.71 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model