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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 2 at the 53
Baltimore Ravens 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 7
What Actually Happened
(10:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 15-M.Brown.
The Three Options
GO
+0.33 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.52 EP
- 39% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -3.04 EP
KICK
-1.99 EP
- 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
- 80% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT
-0.88 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.88 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
