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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to KC 4, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-28-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.44 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model