Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

(1:28) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to KC 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-D.Thomas to KC 17 for 9 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.97 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -2.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model