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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 5 at the 52
Baltimore Ravens 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 23
What Actually Happened
(6:29) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.30 EP
Model's Pick
-
45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.85 EP
- 55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -2.89 EP
KICK
-1.78 EP
- 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
- 78% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT
-0.58 EP
What Happened
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
