Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Baltimore Ravens 19

(10:49) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.76 EP
65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 57, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model