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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 24

Green Bay Packers 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.85 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model