4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 10 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 6-J.Scott punts 50 yards to DEN 18, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP