Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 69

Denver Broncos 10 – Green Bay Packers 17

(1:13) 6-C.Wadman punts 59 yards to GB 10, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.21 EP
51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model