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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 24 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 6-J.Scott punts 66 yards to DEN 2, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 15 for 13 yards (44-T.Summers). PENALTY on DEN-27-D.Harris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 2 yards, enforced at DEN 5.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model